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Russia's defeat is inevitable and over time it will withdraw from all occupied territories of Ukraine, including Crimea, - Feng Yujun, professor at Peking University, Deputy Dean of the Institute of International Studies at Fudan University in Shanghai.
In a column for The Economist, the expert analyzed the current state of affairs and the prospects of both sides in the war.
"The war between the Russian Federation and Ukraine is a disaster for both countries, and the hostilities are unlikely to end in the near future. One of the reasons Russia is having a hard time in this war is that it has not yet recovered from the dramatic deindustrialization it experienced after the collapse of the USSR. Another factor is information. When it comes to decision-making, Putin is trapped in an information cocoon because he has been in power for so long. Taken together, these and other factors make the final defeat of Russia inevitable. Eventually, it will be forced to leave all occupied Ukrainian territories, including Crimea. Its nuclear potential is not a guarantee of success. Although the war cost Ukraine very dearly, the strength and unity of its resistance destroyed the myth of Russia's military invincibility," the expert believes.
Yujun adds that China's relations with Russia are not stable and have been affected by the events of the past two years. He notes that China's position on Russia has returned from the "no limits" position of the beginning of 2022, before the war, to the traditional principles of "non-alignment, non-confrontation and non-targeting of third parties".
"Since Russia is still attacking Ukrainian military positions, critical infrastructure and cities and may be ready to escalate further, the chances of a Korean-style ceasefire seem unlikely. In the absence of fundamental changes in Russia's political system and ideology, the conflict may freeze. This will only allow the Kremlin to continue unleashing new wars after the respite, exposing the world to even greater danger," Feng concludes.
