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Nuclear weapons were once considered un-Islamic by Iran's supreme leader. But much has changed since the 1990s, and although Ayatollah Ali Khamenei still heads the regime, nuclear weapons are no longer taboo.
According to The Telegraph, Tehran insists it has no plans to use its nuclear program as a weapon and says it is only for civilian purposes. Also, the latest US intelligence assessment is that Iran "is not currently engaged in the key nuclear weapons development activities necessary to produce a verifiable nuclear device."
However, there are some disturbing details in this story
Iran is increasing the production of highly enriched uranium, which, however, does not reach the weapons level necessary for an atomic bomb. Since 2019, as of February, Iran has increased the amount of enriched uranium from 997 kg to 5525 kg. This includes an increase in uranium enriched to 60 percent, or close to "weapons grade," from 88 kg to 123 kg over the past year.
As Kelsey Davenport, director of nonproliferation policy at the Arms Control Association, noted, Iran can now build a bomb faster than at any time in its history.
“If Tehran makes the political decision to develop a nuclear arsenal, it can produce enough weapons-grade uranium for an explosive device in less than a week and enough for five to six units in a month... Building a bomb will take longer—probably six months to a year— but this process will take place at secret undeclared facilities, which will make detection and destruction difficult."
The Iran nuclear deal
The roots of this crisis lie in the collapse of the Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA). Under the deal, signed in 2015, Iran agreed to strict limits that ensured it could not stockpile enough enriched uranium to make a single bomb.
However, in 2018, then-President Trump withdrew the US from the agreement and renewed Washington's sanctions against Tehran. Efforts to revive the deal at the start of Joe Biden's presidency failed due to Iranian resistance and a lack of political will in the United States.
After the US withdrawal, Tehran declared its right to cancel part of the agreement. Since February 2021, UN inspectors have not had access to some important facilities of the nuclear program, including centrifuge production facilities.
"The bottom line is that Iran's nuclear program has advanced quite dramatically and with far less international oversight than at any time in its history after the US exited the deal," experts say.
Is it possible to interfere with Iran?
Tehran reckons it can gain more in terms of sanctions relief and future negotiations by signaling a bomb threat than by actually building one. But if Israel retaliates, Tehran may decide it needs the bomb for its own security, The Telegraph notes.
In addition, Russia will no longer play the same role it played in negotiating the previous agreement.
"The prospect of a united international coalition, including Russia and China, that will come together to push Iran on the nuclear issue is almost non-existent at this stage," the analysts note.
The already unpredictable situation is complicated by the age of Iran's supreme leader. When Ali Khamenei, 84, dies, his policies may be replaced by a more hard-line successor.
"It may well be that the hard-liners will be able to more fully seize the reins of power and advance the nuclear program without caring about making any kind of deal with us," experts say.
Iran attacked Israel - what will happen next
The Telegraph previously reported that Iran's recent attack on Israel makes a wider war in the Middle East more likely, and its consequences could be even more serious. In particular, one day Tehran may announce that it has nuclear weapons.
The US recently announced that it would impose new sanctions on Iran after its attack on Israel. The restrictions will target Iran's missile and drone programs.
