The Russian Federation is preparing for the fall of the ruble to 120 per dollar

The Russian authorities do not rule out that the ruble may collapse due to sanctions and falling oil prices.

It is noted that in the basic version, which is calculated based on oil at $65, the Ministry of Economy expects Russian GDP to grow by 2,3% next year, by the same amount a year later and by 2,4% in 2027. At the same time, the ruble gradually weakens - to 98.6 rubles in 2025, 101,2 rubles in 2026, and 103,8 rubles in 2027.

At the moment, the MEP's stressful scenario predicts a drop in Russian oil prices to $51,8 per barrel next year, and then to $45 in 2027.

In such conditions, according to the forecasts of the Russian government, the ruble will collapse to 106,9 rubles per dollar in 2025, 115,1 rubles in 2026, and in 2027 it will fall to the lows seen in the first weeks of the war with Ukraine: 120,1, XNUMX rub. for a dollar

Cheap oil will cost Russia about $100 billion in export revenues annually, according to the estimates of the Ministry of Economy: in the stress scenario, the sale of goods abroad will bring only $365,7 billion next year, compared to $455,7 billion in the base scenario and $424 billion last year.

As a result, the growth of the Russian economy, which Rosstat estimated last year at 3,6%, will slow down to 1,5% in 2024, and in 2025 it will practically stop: the GDP will add only 0,2%. Industrial production and investment in general will begin to fall - by 1,7% and 1,5%, respectively, in 2025.