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In Russia, the so-called "elections" of the president are taking place, in which the dictator Volodymyr will obviously win Putin.
Politico predicted what might happen during his "new term," which will last until at least 2030.
The war in Ukraine has helped make Russia's domestic situation more volatile than it has been in decades, and all kinds of potential future scenarios are no longer unthinkable. What Russia may face by the end of Putin's next term in 2030.
"Vladimir Putin will win the next Russian presidential election. The election, of course, will be rigged in Putin's favor, just like all his previous ones, but Putin is almost certain to seek another six-year term, which will take him at least until 2030," writes Politico.
The first scenario
Putin's disastrous decisions in Ukraine have already led to unintended side effects that will only continue to generate discontent in the future – and more interest in potential alternatives, including open democracy.
Although the first scenario is based on the flourishing of democracy in Russia, its probability ranges between 5-10%.
As the anti-communist and anti-colonial revolutions of 1989 in Eastern Europe showed, totalitarian regimes can rest on quicksand and crumble quickly in the face of democratic movements.
"And this was true even before the suspicious death of Oleksii Navalny in prison... His murder hardly destroyed the pro-democratic energy in the country. With the transformation of Navalny from a campaign participant to a martyr, such momentum for democratic reforms - even a democratic revolution - may actually begin to be built anew," the newspaper writes.
As Politico points out, in combination with other protests, not least organized by the mothers and wives of soldiers of the Russian army, a sudden surge of democratic momentum in the country is now possible.
Scenario two
In the second scenario, with a probability of 10-15%, Russia may simply disintegrate.
Politico writes that amid a devastating war in which hundreds of thousands of Moscow soldiers have died in a senseless struggle, Russians are coming out en masse to protest and oust the regime clinging to power.
"Chaos prevails throughout the country, which turns into a mixture of anarchy, territorial fragmentation and violence, which leaves no region and no family indifferent. After all, this is exactly what happened in Russia in the late 1910s and early 1920s, when the collapse of the tsarist regime tore the Russian Empire apart."
Can it happen again? Maybe not right away. But Russia remains a conglomerate of 21 republics, dozens more regions and even more nationalities with countless grudges against Moscow.
"The longer the war goes on - and the more these colonized minorities are thrown into Putin's meat grinder, exterminated at a much higher rate than ethnic Russians, the more likely this scenario will be."
Scenario three
The third scenario is based on the idea of activation of Russian nationalists. Its probability increases to 15-20%.
Even a year ago, the idea that defecting militiamen led by a staunch nationalist could almost go to Moscow was a fantasy.
And then, in June 2023, Yevgeny Prigozhin, head of the "Wagner" PMC, did just that. And although the PVC did not reach Moscow, it was not due to a lack of opportunities; on the contrary, the way was wide open. If Prigozhin achieved anything, it was that he made Putin look like a tsar without clothes.
For these reasons, such a scenario appears to be one of the most likely for post-Putin Russia. The flames of nationalism ignited by Putin are unlikely to subside in the near future.
The fourth scenario
A technocratic reboot. Approximately 20-25% probability is assigned to this scenario.
The publication noted that two years have passed since Moscow's failed invasion of Ukraine, and its consequences for Russia are already obvious.
These costs, whether in the form of a slumping economy or a spiraling death toll, will continue to accumulate. That is why the idea that the inner circle of Kremlin officials will meet with Putin and tell him that they appreciate his service and wish him the best in retirement - in other words, a repeat of the situation with the resignation of Nikita Khrushchev in 1964 - is a scenario that is likely to will only increase over time.
According to the publication, there is now a high probability that a new regime will appear in Russia by 2030.
"The new government will not necessarily be democratic. But it would be led by a small number of Western-educated technocratic elites who would begin to say many of the things that Western officials and businessmen, eager to return to a kind of pre-war status quo, like to hear. They will place much of the blame for the war solely on Putin, promising a return to normalcy in Moscow. They can go so far as to even release some political prisoners and opposition politicians."
The fifth scenario
"Long live President Putin" is a scenario with a 45-50% probability of the development of events in Russia after Putin's re-election to the post of president.
"With the death of Navalny, the democratic opposition is in ruins. The Russian economy, despite the flurry of Western sanctions, is unlikely to have collapsed, even if it has become sluggish. Although Putin has not conquered Kyiv, the worst of the Ukrainian war may yet be ahead, especially given the US's reticence to arm Ukraine. And compared to American presidents, at the age of 71, Putin still has relative youth on his side," the publication writes.
