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European financial analysts see no reason for the dollar to decline in the next few years. To a large extent, its strengthening will be influenced by the price of oil - steadily rising "black gold" will support the rate of the national currency of the United States.
By the middle of 2018, analysts of foreign banks predicted some weakening of the dollar's position relative to other national currencies of the world's leading countries. Their forecasts were based on long-term observations of fluctuations in the exchange rate of domestic currency units in countries where major sports competitions were held. During the World Cup, the flow of tourists almost always contributes to the strengthening of the host country's national currency by an average of 2%.
The limits of the decrease in the value of the dollar
In the first half of the summer, experts assumed a shift in the dollar exchange rate in the ruble/dollar pair to 61 rubles per unit of American currency. Analysts expressed confidence that this mark is the limit of the dollar's decline, which was influenced by the 21st FIFA World Cup.
Experts also emphasize the role of the price of oil when making long-term currency exchange rate forecasts. Bank analysts note that quotation fluctuations are not caused by unilateral actions of any one specific party. The strengthening or weakening of the exchange rate is also influenced by: the general international situation, actions on the financial markets both in the USA and in other world countries. Anti-Russian sanctions play a significant role in this issue, and, undoubtedly, the sanctions against Iran that will enter into force in November 2018.
How much is a barrel for the people?
Experts pay special attention to the price of oil. Its significant travel may once again lead to an increase in prices for retail goods in the countries of the European Union and in the territory of the post-Soviet space. The dollar exchange rate will try to recover lost positions, as well as strengthen them and rise in the rating.
According to analysts' forecasts, the average annual price of a barrel of oil will remain at the level of 67 dollars. By 2020, the American currency will grow by 4.7%. On the contrary, the euro will depreciate in the next 2 years.
More optimistic is the forecast of oil prices from those experts who believe that the difficulties with the extraction of Venezuelan oil and the tension that has arisen between Iran and the United States allow the high price of "black gold" to be maintained.
The price of the US currency in 2023
The opinions of analysts agree on one thing - the domestic currency of the USA will strengthen. The dollar exchange rate will become more stable by 2020. Ukrainian experts expect the exchange rate to rise to 31.8 Ukrainian hryvnias per unit of American currency. Russian experts predict the value of the dollar in the range of 2023 rubles in 66.3, and up to 2024 rubles in 68.
