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Astronomers have discovered asteroid 2024 YR4, which could theoretically collide with Earth on December 22, 2032. According to the latest NASA calculations, the probability of an impact is estimated at 3,1% - this is the highest predicted risk of a large asteroid collision in modern history. However, experts urge not to panic, because humanity has several ways to protect itself, writes Science Alert.
The most effective method is a direct collision of the probe with the asteroid. A similar approach was successfully tested in 2022 during the DART mission, when NASA's spacecraft changed the orbit of the asteroid Dimorphos by crashing into it. Other options involve using a gravity tractor - a spacecraft that will use its gravity to deflect the trajectory of the celestial body, or an ion engine that will gradually change its course.
Alternative tactics There is painting part of the asteroid white - this will change the reflectivity and gradually correct its motion. A radical option is to detonate a nuclear bomb near the asteroid, which could change its trajectory by vaporizing its surface layer. However, this approach has risks, as debris could still fall to Earth..
Scientists are also considering using powerful lasers to vaporize material from the asteroid's surface, creating a reactive force that would alter its trajectory. While this method is promising, it is not currently a priority.
Even if the asteroid is not deflected, its collision will not lead to a global catastrophe—the maximum threat will be limited to one city. Scientists emphasize that humanity has 7,5 years to prepare, and the chances that the asteroid will still fly by Earth remain very high—97%.
Astronomers have discovered asteroid 2024 YR4, which could theoretically collide with Earth on December 22, 2032. According to the latest NASA calculations, the probability of an impact is estimated at 3,1% - this is the highest predicted risk of a large asteroid collision in modern history. However, experts urge not to panic, because humanity has several ways to protect itself, writes Science Alert.
The most effective method is a direct collision of the probe with the asteroid. A similar approach was successfully tested in 2022 during the DART mission, when NASA's spacecraft changed the orbit of the asteroid Dimorphos by crashing into it. Other options involve using a gravity tractor - a spacecraft that will use its gravity to deflect the trajectory of the celestial body, or an ion engine that will gradually change its course.
Alternative tactics There is painting part of the asteroid white - this will change the reflectivity and gradually correct its motion. A radical option is to detonate a nuclear bomb near the asteroid, which could change its trajectory by vaporizing its surface layer. However, this approach has risks, as debris could still fall to Earth..
Scientists are also considering using powerful lasers to vaporize material from the asteroid's surface, creating a reactive force that would alter its trajectory. While this method is promising, it is not currently a priority.
Even if the asteroid is not deflected, its collision will not lead to a global catastrophe—the maximum threat will be limited to one city. Scientists emphasize that humanity has 7,5 years to prepare, and the chances that the asteroid will still fly by Earth remain very high—97%.
