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The probability of asteroid 2024 YR4 colliding with Earth in 2032 is between 1,2% and 2,3%, making it one of the greatest known threats.
The asteroid, estimated to be between 130 and 300 feet in diameter, was first detected in December 2023 in Chile and reconfirmed in January 2024. NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory and the European Space Agency are tracking its trajectory to assess the potential risk.
Scientists are using telescopes around the world, including the James Webb Space Telescope, to refine the object's trajectory. The asteroid is currently moving away from Earth in an elongated orbit, but it will be visible again in 2028. By then, astronomers hope to reduce the level of uncertainty about a potential collision.
NASA previously successfully conducted a DART test mission, changing the course of the asteroid Dimorphos by deliberately colliding with it. Similar technologies could be used if the real threat from 2024 YR4 is confirmed.
