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The real military threat from the Russian Federation also depends on the development of the war in Ukraine, according to Denmark
Moscow is currently trying to avoid actions that threaten war with the Alliance, but its appetite for risk may increase, Copenhagen believes.
Russia will be ready for a new invasion after the end of the war in Ukraine in six months if the North Atlantic Alliance does not rearm in parallel with Russia, according to an updated assessment of the threat from Russia by the Danish Defense Ministry's General Intelligence Directorate.
According to unclassified information, there is currently no threat of a military attack on NATO, but the danger will grow over the coming years.
At the beginning of a full-scale war, Russia began a major restructuring and reform of its army, and throughout 2024 it engaged in intensified rearmament to be able to fight on a par with NATO forces.
Russia is currently trying to avoid actions that could trigger NATO's Article 5, but its appetite for risk could increase if the balance of power shifts.
The real military threat from Russia also depends on the development of the war in Ukraine. When the war is stopped or frozen, the Kremlin will be able to free up significant military resources.
According to Danish intelligence estimates, if NATO does not rearm at a sufficient pace, the following scenarios are possible after the end of the war in Ukraine:
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- in six months, the Russian Federation will be able to wage a local war in one of its neighboring countries;
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- in about two years it will pose a real threat to one or more NATO countries, that is, it will be ready for a regional war against several states in the Baltic Sea region;
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- In about five years, Moscow may be ready for a large-scale war on the European continent without US participation.
