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Turkey and Turkmenistan have signed a promising agreement on the transit of Turkmen gas bypassing Russia, which has been negotiated for decades. Russia is rapidly losing its energy leverage not only in Europe, but also in other regions. Will Putin's "friends" replace him as the supplier of blue fuel to Europe?
The situation was explained to the Telegraph Volodymyr Omelchenko, Director of Energy Programs at the Razumkov Center.
The deal that social networks were pinning their hopes on
Turkmenistan has some of the world's largest natural gas reserves, and Turkey has a strategic location between major energy producers and European consumers.
And here are Turkey's prospects for becoming a key transit route for Turkmen gas to Europe and caused optimism among Ukrainians. They say that the EU is just trying to organize sufficient supplies due to the cessation of gas flows from Russia. And Russia will no longer be able to blackmail the EU with its fuel and will lose the profits that it directs to the war in Ukraine. Now the Russian Federation can legally supply its gas to Europe only through Turkey. The recipients are Hungary and Serbia.
Because on February 11, 2025, Turkey and Turkmenistan signed an agreement to facilitate the flow of Turkmen natural gas to Turkey. It will be transported through the existing Iran's gas networkbecause there is no border between countries.
Why it's too early to talk about deliveries to Europe
But Istanbul will buy from Turkmengaz until 2 billion cubic meters of gas per year, and consumes — over 50 billion cubic meters. Volodymyr Omelchenko explains: a volume of 2 billion is not enough to supply to Europe.
“This is a swap contract, when gas is supplied from Turkmenistan. There are no direct borders between Turkey and Azerbaijan. That is, gas is supplied under a swap contract: from Turkmenistan to the northeastern regions of Iran (they are deficient in terms of gas). And then it is replaced by gas supplies from the northwestern regions of Iran to Turkey. This is the agreement they concluded,” says Omelchenko.
The deal is important for Turkey because it is an additional resource. The country will be able to trade with other players in the market.
“This will not affect Ukraine in any way for now. Because Turkey buys for itself, and these are small volumes,” Omelchenko concluded.
Prospects for increasing volumes are possible. However, there are two problems: the construction of an alternative route and China.
Regarding the first problem, Turkmenistan has large gas reserves, but for this it is necessary to build powerful gas pipelines.
“We need a Trans-Caspian gas pipeline (across the Caspian Sea, — Ed.), because building through Iran is risky"That is, to revive the Trans-Caspian gas pipeline project and then supply it through the Caspian Sea, then through the Caucasus countries and to Turkey. In the future, it is possible to lay a pipe through the Black Sea and that would be a good project," says Omelchenko.
It should be noted that the main volumes in Turkmenistan are contracted by China. Over the past 10 years, Beijing has greatly increased supplies from Turkmenistan.
“And that's why I don't think that right now or in a couple of years Turkmenistan will have large volumes available outside of Chinese contracts. We need to increase production... Turkmenistan is under significant influence from China, it is a state dependent on Beijing. And first of all, China wants gas for itself, not for someone else,” the expert says.
Turkey has the potential to become a transit route for Turkmen gas to Western markets, but there are a large number of problems. These problems can be solved, but this requires the involvement of serious political forces.
“There was once a project to supply gas from Turkmenistan, but it never took place because Russia rejected it,” says Omelchenko.
