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Probability of an asteroid collision in 2024 YR4 The estimated chance of a collision with Earth on December 22, 2032, is 2,3%. However, new estimates suggest that the object could hit the Moon instead. According to calculations by engineer David Rankin, of the Catalina Sky Observatory at the University of Arizona, the probability of a collision between asteroid 2024 YR4 and the Moon is 0,3%.
Because Earth's natural satellite has no atmosphere, 2024 YR4 will reach the lunar surface unhindered and create a crater up to two kilometers in diameter. This is a mere pit compared to the largest crater on the Moon, the South Pole-Aitken Basin, which is 2400 by 2050 kilometers in size.
The potential collision of 2024 YR4 with the Moon will be perfectly visible from Earth. It could result in the ejection of material that will gain enough speed to fly into space. Some of this debris may even reach Earth, but most likely these fragments will not pose any threat and will burn up completely in the atmosphere. In any case, the probability of 2024 YR4 colliding with either the Moon or Earth is extremely small.
