From the Americas to Africa, 2024 was marked by extreme weather events. Research shows that these events, exacerbated by climate change, require better forecasting and robust response systems to save lives and reduce impacts. From prolonged droughts in southern Africa and Central America earlier in the year to catastrophic rainfall in Spain and the deadly Hurricane Helen along the US East Coast, 2024 was a year of extreme weather events that affected billions of people around the world.
The science behind storms
A recent study in Advances in Atmospheric Sciences Led by Dr. Wenxia Zhang from the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, the study examines the most significant climate events of 2024, including heavy rainfall, floods, tropical cyclones and droughts. The study explores their root causes, the impact of global warming and the urgent need for society to become more “climate resilient”. Since 2022, Dr. Zhang’s team has conducted annual reviews of global climate extremes, identifying 2024 as a year particularly marked by extreme rainfall and floods.
"Most extreme events have a large element of chance because they depend on weather fluctuations and occur when weather conditions are set in the 'right' way. Some extreme events are more likely when large-scale drivers, such as ENSO, influence weather patterns in a region," says Dr James Risby from CSIRO, co-author of the study.

The role of El Niño and climate change
In particular, many of the extreme rainfall and drought events in 2024 were linked to atmospheric configurations associated with the El Niño of the winter of 2023/24. However, ENSO does not fully explain individual events. In addition, according to studies on the attribution of extreme events, or “attribution science,” we know that human-induced climate change since the pre-industrial era has in many cases exacerbated extreme rainfall, tropical cyclones, and droughts, and therefore their socio-economic impacts.
“The impact of climate change could be direct through physical processes that drive extreme events, or indirect through effects on weather, large-scale drivers and key baselines,” adds Dr Risby. “This is consistent with the basic physical understanding that anthropogenic warming leads to increased atmospheric moisture and evapotranspiration, and therefore potentially increases extreme precipitation and droughts accordingly,” explains Dr Wenxia Zhang.
Call for accurate attribution
Despite our understanding of why the world is experiencing increasingly stronger and more frequent extreme climate events, the research team behind this study makes it clear that key challenges remain in our knowledge and attribution of these events – not least the frequent discrepancies between observed and modelled extremes (particularly for extreme precipitation), which limits our confidence in the attribution results.
“Improved attribution of extreme events requires a better understanding of climate change,” says Dr. Michael Brody of George Mason University (USA) and the International Agricultural University (Uzbekistan), another of the authors of the paper. “It is expected that more accurate definition of extreme events will help in decision-making, from disaster recovery to preparedness for the future.”
Forecasting and responding to extreme events
Another important aspect of this evolving climate story is our ability to accurately predict and broadcast extreme events, and then act accordingly. This could save many lives that would otherwise be lost to floods and hurricanes like those seen in 2024.
“Some of the extreme events that occurred in 2024, such as Hurricane Helen, were well-forecasted,” says Dr. Zhao Wang of the University of Illinois, another member of the team. “The devastating effects were partly caused by the vulnerability of unprepared communities to climate change.”
Dr Piotr Wolski from the University of Cape Town adds: “Improving the quality of forecasts is important, but to reduce the impact of extreme events, it is more important to ensure that warnings are properly disseminated and acted upon to reduce existing vulnerabilities.”
Building resilience to climate change
Dr. Wolski’s comments address the idea of “climate resilience,” which is quickly becoming a crucial aspect of our holistic approach to climate change and the impact it is having on our society. As we move toward a sense of near inevitability that this is our world now, there is a growing sense of what can be done to protect ourselves, as well as how to prevent the problem from occurring in the first place.
Human impact and urgency of action
As we saw in Valencia, Spain, after the devastating floods and landslides there in October, the consequences of extreme weather events do not take long to manifest themselves in frustration and anger among the affected people. It is clear that it is more urgent than ever not only to work on a better understanding of the drivers of extreme weather and climate conditions, but also to better predict their occurrence and develop effective systems to respond quickly to the information available. Only then can we be better prepared for years like 2024.