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The Arctic's "last glacial area" (LIA) — a vital habitat for ice-dependent species — could disappear within a decade after the central Arctic Ocean becomes ice-free in the summer, which is expected to happen around mid-century, a new study by McGill University researchers using a high-resolution model has shown.
Previously, lower-resolution models suggested that the LIA could continue for several decades beyond this point. The stability of this region is crucial for the preservation of Arctic ecology, as it provides suitable habitat for ice-dependent species, including polar bears, belugas, bowhead whales, walruses, ringed seals, bearded seals, and white gulls.
“These findings underscore the urgency of reducing warming to ensure stable projections for the LIA and critical Arctic habitats,” said Madeleine Fall, lead author of the paper, which was her master’s thesis.
In 2019, the Government of Canada designated the portion of the LIA located north of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago as the Tuwaijuittuk Marine Protected Area. In August 2024, the temporary protection of this area was extended to five years, "while the Government of Canada works with partners to consider long-term protection."
Inuit communities are deeply invested in protecting the unique LIA ecosystem. Environmental organizations, including the World Wildlife Fund, have also long campaigned to protect the entire LIA to support the resilience of the Arctic ecosystem.
"Our findings were based on high-resolution models that account for sea ice transport across the Canadian Arctic Archipelago," said Bruno Tremblay, a professor in the Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Studies who led the study. "This suggests that the LIA may have disappeared much earlier than previously thought."
These new simulations show that a significant portion of the remnants of the thick LIA ice could flow southward through the archipelago, entering warmer waters and melting rapidly, potentially washing away the LIA sea ice within a decade. Such rapid washing of the LIA across the islands of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago is only possible if continuous ice-free conditions are achieved over the central Arctic Ocean, the researchers said. Preserving the thick LIA ice is important for its protection, as it impedes the transport of sea ice through the archipelago, they added.
