The world of quantum technology is experiencing a dramatic moment of re-evaluation of expectations. A recent statement by Jensen Huang, the CEO of Nvidia, caused a real storm in the quantum computing market, leading to the loss of more than $8 billion in market value. This situation resembles the classic scenario of "excessive expectations" that often accompanies the development of revolutionary technologies.

Huang's prediction that truly functional quantum technologies would emerge in about 20 years turned out to be a frankly sobering view of the industry. His assessment, based on a deep understanding of technological development, represents a middle ground between the overly optimistic 15-year forecast and the pessimistic 30-year scenario.
Juan's position was supported by Ivana Delevska from Spear Invest, drawing a parallel with the history of the development of accelerated computing by Nvidia itself. This historical example serves as an important reminder that revolutionary technological breakthroughs require not only investment, but also considerable time to mature.
However, the situation is not as unambiguous as it may seem at first glance. In parallel with pessimistic forecasts, the industry continues to demonstrate impressive achievements. Chinese scientists managed to use D-Wave systems to break military cryptography, and Google introduced the Willow quantum chip, capable of solving problems that a classical computer would have to solve for 10 septillion years. China has also made significant progress, creating a 504-qubit quantum machine.
The current state of quantum computing can be compared to the era of classical computers in the 1980s and 1990s. Back then, it was also difficult to predict the scale of the coming digital revolution. Today's market reaction reflects less doubts about the technology's potential than a correction of overly optimistic expectations about the timing of its implementation.
A 40% drop in the shares of companies in the sector can be seen as a natural process of "growing up" in the industry, when the initial enthusiasm gives way to a more realistic assessment of the pace of development. This is reminiscent of the situation with Internet companies in the early 2000s, when there was a major correction after the initial boom, but the technology continued to develop and eventually transformed the world.
Thus, the current situation in the quantum computing sector demonstrates a classic paradox of technological development: short-term expectations are often overestimated, while the long-term consequences of technological revolutions are usually underestimated. Time will tell if Huang's 20-year prediction turns out to be accurate, but it is already clear that the road to the quantum revolution will be longer and more difficult than many expected.