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Donald Trump’s relationship with authoritarian leaders has long been the subject of heated debate. From his praise of Xi Jinping (“I consider him a friend… He’s a strong guy, a tough guy”) to his mutual sympathy with Kim Jong-un (“He liked me… I really liked him”). But it has always been his intermittent relationship with Vladimir Putin that has drawn the most attention and speculation, The Times reports.
With Trump back in office, and with Russia’s war against Ukraine potentially nearing its finale, the direction of world politics will largely depend on how Trump and Putin interact and whether they can get along. The question is: What is the true nature of their relationship?
Trump's first term as president has been marked by numerous allegations of ties to Russian intelligence, including questionable financial dealings, a sex scandal at a Moscow hotel, and contacts between his campaign and the Kremlin. But even Special Counsel Robert Mueller's investigation, which culminated in a 448-page report, failed to prove that Trump was under Moscow's control.
As one American counterintelligence officer noted, “the whole seemed much less than the sum of its parts.” Even a former Russian intelligence officer admitted, “If he were our asset, we would tell him to always look at us with hostility so that no one could accuse him of being our man.”
Trump’s unconventional approach to Putin only fueled suspicions. Even before the 2016 election, when Putin called Trump “a very colorful personality,” the future US president expressed admiration: “It’s a great honor for me to be praised by a man who is so highly respected in his country and abroad.”
Their five face-to-face meetings have been marked by an atmosphere of intimacy. For example, in Helsinki in 2018, after a long conversation with only interpreters, Trump effectively sided with Putin, saying he trusted him more than the FBI about Russian election interference.
A new reality
With Trump's return to power, a new era of personalist politics is taking shape in the world. As a representative of the European Commission noted:
“We deal with national interests, treaties and so on, but now we are being asked to parse the meaning of every whim and random comment of Trump.”
Trump’s personal relationship with Putin and Zelensky is expected to determine the fate of Ukraine. The Kremlin has high hopes for Trump’s return. Putin said: “If his victory had not been stolen in 2020, then perhaps there would not have been a crisis (war) in Ukraine that broke out in 2022.”
Moreover, the Kremlin has been actively demonstrating its support. Putin recently sent Trump a congratulatory video message, emphasizing his desire to “prevent World War III.”
The Kremlin is considering a deal with Trump that would allow Russia to keep occupied territories in Ukraine and block its entry into NATO. However, in contrast to his previous rhetoric, Trump is now critical of Putin: “He is destroying Russia.”
Zelensky's role
Trump's personal relationship with Zelensky began on a rocky note. In 2019, Trump tried to pressure Zelensky to investigate the Biden family, which led to his impeachment. But Zelensky is eager to strengthen that relationship.
At the recent World Economic Forum, the president of Ukraine addressed Trump, saying, “Will President Trump even notice Europe?” This was a clear signal to the new US administration.
Both Trump and Putin have strong but vulnerable egos. But there is a risk that Putin could misjudge Trump. As one Russian official put it, “If Trump feels disrespected, he can act unpredictably. Provoke him, and he might try to burn us, just to teach us a lesson.”
Prospects of ending the war in Ukraine
As the authoritative British newspaper The Times wrote, there are four most likely scenarios for the further development of events in the Russian-Ukrainian war. In particular, British journalists consider possible military defeat of Ukraine due to the prolongation of the war, peace on the terms of significant concessions from Kyiv, a ceasefire without a formal peace, or a full-fledged peace agreement, but without the complete de-occupation of Ukrainian territories.
We also reported that Trump's special representative for Ukraine and Russia, Keith Kellogg, publicly confirmed the US's intention to crash world oil prices in order to force Putin to negotiate.
