Canada's G7 Presidency: Priorities and Challenges

15.01.2025/14/45 XNUMX:XNUMX    421

Will it be possible to form and implement a strong program in a weak position?

Canada began its one-year presidency of the Group of Seven in 2025, giving it the opportunity to influence key global challenges and advance important international initiatives. However, domestic political developments may affect Ottawa’s ability to effectively implement its ambitions in this role. Unfortunately, Canada’s presidency of the G7 has come at a time of deep political turbulence. While Canada’s previous presidency of the G7 in 2018 was a shining example of a successful liberal democracy led by one of the world’s most charismatic leaders, this year the country has entered a state of deep internal crisis and a certain anarchy, as incumbent Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced his upcoming resignation in early January.

Photo: Cole Burston for The New York Times

Although the election of a new prime minister will take place in record time and the public will know his or her name on March 9, a new federal election will likely be called soon after. The results are projected to give the current opposition Conservative Party a majority of seats in parliament and the right to form a government.

Thus, for at least the first half of the year, Canada will be in election mode, focused mainly on domestic issues. Whoever becomes prime minister in the upcoming elections will have extremely limited time to shape their own foreign policy priorities and appoint a professional team.

CANADA'S PRIORITIES

Due to political instability, the government has not yet officially presented a full list of its priorities for the presidency of the Group. The Canadian Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated only that it will promote “shared priorities, such as: building economies that benefit everyone, combating climate change and controlling rapidly developing technologies.” In addition, Justin Trudeau promised to promote “peace and freedom in Ukraine.”

Experts believe that Ottawa will continue to work on existing initiatives, including countering foreign interference in domestic processes and reforming international financial institutions to make them more effective for developing countries. Also playing an important role in shaping the agenda are civil society organizations, which call on Canada to focus on confiscating Russian assets to help Ukraine and on addressing the problem of global cuts in international aid.




Peter Boehm / Photo: The Hill Times photograph by Sam Garcia

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According to Canadian Senator Peter Boehm, who headed the organizing committee of the G7 summit in 2018, Trudeau may try to enlist the support of partners to reform and strengthen the role of the WHO, which former US President Donald Trump, who will soon return to the White House, wanted to leave.

THE AMERICAN FACTOR

It was Donald Trump's outrageous statements that made the last G7 summit, which Canada hosted in the province of Quebec in 2018, most memorable. Then Trump refused to sign the final declaration, leaving the summit early and calling Trudeau "dishonest and weak."

Photo: Canadian Press/Rex/Shutterstock

The then-incumbent was angered by a dispute with the head of the Canadian government over the introduction of tariffs that the US was planning to impose on many Canadian goods. Much to the disappointment of the current Canadian government, there is a risk of a repeat of such an unfortunate situation this year, as Trump is threatening to impose a devastating 25% import tax on all Canadian goods on his first day after inauguration. It is not yet clear whether he will carry out his threat, but his latest aggressive statements regarding Canada do not add to optimism.

Notably, Trump's conviction last May de jure bars him from entering Canada. Given this, Ottawa will likely be forced to issue him a special permit for the leadership summit, which will take place in mid-June in the province of Alberta.

A MEETING AT THE TOP WITH LOW EXPECTATIONS

Ottawa has not yet announced the full list of high-level meetings planned as part of its presidency. Italy, which holds the G7 presidency in 2024, managed to organize 24 ministerial meetings between March and November. However, Boehm believes that Canada will focus on quality rather than quantity of meetings, thus also reducing security costs. “For Canada, the problem is timing and how it relates to our political and electoral calendars, as well as what initiatives to propose to achieve consensus,” the senator explained.

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One of the privileges of the host country is the right to form a list of invitees to the meeting. For example, in 2018, Ottawa invited the leaders of island states to discuss climate change and ocean plastic pollution. Given that South Africa holds the G20 presidency this year, it is worth expecting the country to be represented in Alberta in June. South Korea, which has previously expressed its desire to take Russia’s place in the G7, also has a good chance of being invited.

While the Group of Seven usually acts much more monolithically than the G20, the positions of member countries on some key issues have recently diverged noticeably. An unpredictable Donald Trump, who prefers bilateral rather than multilateral agreements, is guaranteed to add to the chaos. Given that the G7 is much more important to Canada than to the United States, Ottawa would do well to work very well with the incoming administration in Washington to avoid a fiasco.

UKRAINE ON THE AGENDA

Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine, which has been a central theme of the three previous G7 summits, will also be high on the agenda this year. “After Canada’s presidency of the Group of Seven began, my first official conversation was with Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiga. Ukraine remains a priority for the G7,” Canadian Foreign Minister Melanie Joly recently said. At the very least, we should expect Ukrainian representatives to participate in various G7 events taking place in Canada this year.

Melanie Jolie / Photo: THE CANADIAN PRESS/Adrian Wyld

The amount of Canadian financial assistance provided to Ukraine since February 2022 is the largest per capita among all G7 countries. Ottawa also provides significant military and humanitarian assistance and generally remains one of our largest advocates in the world. It was Canada that was one of the first to seize Russian property in favor of Ukraine and actively promoted the provision of a $ 50 billion loan to Ukraine, which would be paid for by the proceeds from frozen Russian funds. In addition, Canada has long supported the idea of ​​\u7b\uXNUMXbcreating a special international tribunal to investigate crimes of Russian aggression. Such an initiative is an important signal to the international community that violations of international law are unacceptable. Canada also attaches great importance to the sanctions pressure on Russia, which are supported by all GXNUMX members. There is every reason to hope that Canada will integrate its tough policy towards Russia into the common position of the Group of Seven.

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Former Canadian Foreign Minister Lloyd Axworthy recently proposed reviving Canada’s 2002 initiative to reduce the world’s stockpiles of chemical and nuclear weapons. He believes this would create safeguards that would prevent the spread of nuclear weapons. “The G7 presidency gives Canada the opportunity to reassert its role as an effective diplomatic player in the world. I think we’ve let that slip,” he said. Such initiatives could also help Ukraine, which is asserting its sovereignty in a war with a nuclear-armed state.

Overall, Canada enters its G7 presidency as the weakest in a decade: debilitating domestic political confrontation, a weakened economy, and strained relations with its neighbor and largest partner do not contribute to strategic vision and influence on the world stage. However, despite its internal difficulties, Canada has a chance to use its presidency to strengthen international law and ensure long-term stability. For Ukraine, this presidency can be an important signal: even in the most difficult times, it can count on the support of a reliable ally. The main thing is to ensure that the proposed initiatives contribute not only to solving current challenges, but also to creating conditions for lasting peace and prosperity.

Maksym Nalyvaiko, Ottawa

First photo: EPA


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