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After the loud statements of the US President Donald Trump about the desire to purchase Greenland, The Arctic has once again emerged into the spotlight. The region can become a source of resources, shorten logistical routes and has strategic importance in geopolitical and military dimensions. Let's try to find out how politics and climate change can affect the development of the region.
Heat at the Pole
In 2023, temperatures in the region were 4°C above the 13th century average, and Arctic ice is melting at an incredible rate. According to NASA, sea ice is shrinking by 1981% each year from the 2010–0,8 average. This threatens to raise global sea levels, which are rising by XNUMX mm annually due to the melting of Greenland’s glaciers.
Paradoxically, the effects of global warming and climate change are most noticeable and significant in this region. The reason is water vapor, which is produced by greater evaporation in open ocean conditions. This is important because water vapor is a greenhouse gas, just like carbon dioxide and methane. It traps heat in the atmosphere.
More sea ice loss causes more evaporation, which traps more heat, which in turn causes more melting of that same ice, and it's all part of a vicious cycle.
Research have shown that a sharp and potentially devastating temperature rise of 3–5°C in the Arctic is now inevitable, even if the world manages to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in line with the Paris Agreement. According to the UN, winter temperatures in the North Pole are likely to rise by at least 3°C above pre-industrial levels by mid-century, with further increases possible. 5-9 ° C above the average for the region.
However, this could be a problem not only for this region. Scientists fear that the warming of the Arctic could trigger a climate change. "tipping point", because melting permafrost releases the greenhouse gas methane into the atmosphere, which, in turn, can create a rapid warming effect. Not to mention the rise in sea levels.
Even if all carbon emissions were to stop immediately (which is impossible), the Arctic region would still warm by more than 5°C by the end of the century.
Trade routes and resources
In 2018, the Canadian cargo ship MV Nunavik became the first ship to pass beyond the Arctic Circle without icebreakers. Melting ice and less severe weather are helping to develop Arctic logistics routes.
The amount of cargo transported via the Northern Sea Route remains low compared to the Suez Canal, but is growing every year. The volume of cargo transported via the Northern Sea Route in 2023 reached a historical maximum and amounted to 36,254 million tons.
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The NSR shortens the distance between Europe and Asia by 40% compared to the traditional route through the Suez Canal. The thickness of the ice directly affects the cost of shipping. Now, when the Arctic ice is slowly melting due to weather conditions, the cost of icebreaking services is expected to decrease. Therefore, the fee for escorting an NSR icebreaker can be several times lower than the fee for passage through the Suez Canal.
Another reason for the region’s revival is its abundant resources. For example, Greenland alone has an estimated 90 billion barrels of undiscovered oil, 30 percent of the world’s gas reserves, and rare earth minerals essential to modern technology. And the Arctic’s potential for wind and hydroelectric power is estimated at 200 GW.
What policies do countries pursue in the Arctic?
USA
The Arctic has recently made headlines after Donald Trump reiterated his desire to buy Greenland. Trump cited national security interests, although the territory’s vast mineral wealth is also a significant reason. Greenland, the world’s largest island, covers more than 2 million square kilometers but is sparsely populated, with only about 60 residents. It has long been considered key to US security, particularly in deterring a potential attack from Russia.
Trump is not the first U.S. president to float the idea of buying Greenland. In 1867, when President Andrew Johnson bought Alaska, he also considered buying Greenland. According to documents first reported by Danish media, at the end of World War II, the Truman administration offered Denmark $100 million for the island, but neither offer was taken up.
Despite this, under a 1951 defense treaty, the United States received an air base, now called Pitufik Space Base, in northwest Greenland. Halfway between Moscow and New York, it is the northernmost outpost of the US armed forces, equipped with a missile warning system.
Denmark currently refuses to discuss any ideas for selling the island.
Trump is eyeing Greenland, but other Arctic investments are on hold. For example, an auction for oil in the Alaska National Reserve recently fell through because there is no infrastructure to extract the resources.
Russia
Russia, along with Denmark, Canada and the United States, are challenging the UN over the extension of their continental shelf in the Arctic. The total disputed area is more than 1,2 million square kilometers of territory.
The Baltics and the Arctic are positioned by Russia as a sphere of influence, in particular through access to natural resources and through the basing of part of the nuclear triad in the region - nuclear submarines and a missile base on the Kola Peninsula.
In December 2022, Russia passed a law that provides for increased control over the movement of foreign ships through the Northern Sea Route, and the territory is designated as a "vital" zone in a new maritime doctrine that allows the use of military means to protect Russian interests.
At the same time, sanctions and the start of the war have seriously damaged Russia's interests in the region. For example, the Arktikugol Trust, which mines coal on the island of Svalbard, no longer exists and is no longer able to export its products. Russian membership in the Arctic Council was suspended, although Even before 2022, ambitious projects for the construction and development of ports on the Northern Route were being considered, including in collaboration with Western countries.
Now it appears that Russia has moved towards militarization of the region and economic cooperation with China. In 2022, Russia restored over 50 Soviet military bases in the Arctic, including air bases and radar stations.
And China, which calls itself a "priarctic" state, also has ambitions there and has declared its intention to build a "Polar Silk Road."
China
China is eyeing mineral resources and new shipping routes as glaciers retreat with rising temperatures. In particular, a Chinese radio station has begun broadcasting Arctic sea ice conditions off the coast of Russia for ships sailing through the Northeast Passage, as China seeks to continue using the world's northernmost shipping routes as an alternative to the Suez Canal.
Because China has only two ships of the appropriate class and for some other reasons, it is forced to rely on cooperation with Russia. In particular, the state corporation Rostec plans to implement the Arctic Ice Mode Shipping System (AIRSS) methodology and conducts monitoring, dispatching and escorting of ships.
Great expectations
Although many representatives of the governments of the Arctic Council countries claim that investment projects have been curtailed due to the deterioration of relations with Russia. This may be only part of the answer. For example, according to Helen Tofte, director of international cooperation and climate at the Norwegian Shipowners' Association, the prospects for shipping in the Arctic have been "exaggerated."
She notes that despite the impacts of climate change, the Arctic remains a challenging place to work. “Conditions in the Arctic can be extremely challenging, even when the lack of sea ice allows for passage.”
And he adds that significant parts of the route are far from emergency response capabilities, such as search and rescue.
There is also speculation that the hopes for Klondike resources are also not entirely true. Professor Arild Moe of the Norwegian research group Fridtjof Nansen Institute says that commercial interest in the Arctic was based on exaggerated assumptions.
"The 2008 reports did not talk about actual reserves, but about potential and highly uncertain resources, the extraction of which would be risky, difficult to find, and expensive."
Be that as it may, all countries are increasing defense spending and their presence in the territory, so the region could become another important point of NATO's confrontation against Russia and China.
