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Russian warships disappeared from its base in Syria a day after rebel forces ousted longtime dictator Bashar al-Assad. This is evidenced by new satellite images obtained by Business Insider.
The disappearance of ships from the naval base in Tartus may signal the weakening of Russian influence in the region. This facility was the only naval base of Moscow outside the post-Soviet space. It provides access to a warm Mediterranean port and serves as a key point for power projection in the region. Together with the Khmeimim air base, these facilities became the basis of Moscow's military campaign in Syria.
During the civil war, Russia supported Assad with military operations, as well as with the help of Iran and Hezbollah. However, after Assad fled to Moscow, the rebels, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, took control of Damascus and neighboring territories, leaving Russia without its main ally in the region.
Escape of the military fleet
Images from Planet Labs PBC and BlackSky show that Russian ships, including frigates, a submarine and oil tankers, left the port of Tartus shortly after the fall of the Assad regime. Although part of the fleet returned for a few days, the ships again disappeared from the port, which may indicate a gradual evacuation.
Ukrainian military intelligence reports that Russia is also transferring weapons from the Khmeimim air base. This supports the assumption that the Kremlin is looking to secure its strategic assets amid uncertainty about the new Syrian government.
The withdrawal of Russian forces may be due to several factors:
1. Weakening of the Russian army. The war in Ukraine has depleted Moscow's resources, making it difficult to support its foreign adventures.
2. Loss of allies. The fall of Assad, as well as the weakening of Iran and Hezbollah due to their conflicts against Israel, deprived Russia of its foothold in the region.
3. Preparation for new threats. The rebels could pose a threat to Russian bases, especially if the new Syrian government takes an anti-Russian stance.
The newspaper notes that the loss of bases in Tartus and Khmeimim will deal a serious blow to Russia's ability to operate in the Middle East and the Mediterranean. It could also undermine its global influence and deprive an important symbol of geopolitical weight.
The situation around the Russian bases remains uncertain. If the new Syrian government decides to reduce the Kremlin's military presence, it could close important access to the region for Russia. At the same time, it opens up opportunities for Western allies to increase their influence in the Middle East, in particular through new alliances with the rebels.
Russia withdraws forces from Syria
The Russian invaders will transfer planes and helicopters from Syria to the war against Ukraine. This opinion was expressed by military expert Mykhailo Zhirokhov.
