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After the collapse of the regime of Bashar al-Assad in Syria, the Kremlin's biggest ally in the Middle East, Russian state media tried to play down the significance of the event for Moscow, saying that the war in Ukraine took priority. At the same time, writes The Times, not all supporters of the Kremlin accepted this point of view, and some are already calling the event "a colossal geopolitical defeat for Russia."
According to analysts, Putin's obsession with the war in Ukraine has led to a decrease in Russia's ability to influence events in other countries, in particular, to a weakening of the Kremlin's military and strategic capabilities in Syria.
"Russia has been present in Syria since Soviet times. And Putin ruined everything in two weeks. And for what? Capture one more village in Ukraine?", said one of the Moscow journalists.
Ruslan Pukhov, head of the Moscow think tank "Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies", notes that Moscow currently does not possess sufficient military power, resources, influence and authority for effective forceful intervention outside the former Soviet Union.
"You can bluff about your strength and capabilities on the world stage, but it is important not to start believing your own bluff," he said.
At the same time, writes The Times, there is an option that Syria was important for Putin because it allowed him to challenge the West and test new weapons, which he can now do in Ukraine on a much larger scale. There are also fears that if Russia completely withdraws its troops from Syria, it will transfer them to the battlefields in Donbas.
It is worth noting that Russia's failure in Syria is taking place against the background of the weakening of its influence in other countries. We can mention the failed attempt to disrupt Moldova's accession to the EU, the annulment of the results of the first round of presidential elections in Romania, where the pro-Russian ultra-nationalist Calin Georgescu won, as well as protests against the pro-Russian ruling party in Georgia.
While there is not always a direct link between the war and the Kremlin's inability to impose and maintain its influence beyond its borders, Russia's massive losses in Ukraine have undermined faith in its power, said Ben Dubow, a senior fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis.
"Winning victories on the battlefield is the only sure way to restore trust, but any new military adventures will be associated with the risk of new defeats and new invitations to challenge the Russian authorities," he notes.
The collapse of the Assad regime
It will be recalled that on December 8, the command of the Syrian army informed the officers about the fall of the regime of President Bashar Assad.
