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The Kim Jong Un regime's reliance on economic support from Russia could backfire if Donald Trump succeeds in ending Putin's war in Ukraine.
Bloomberg writes about this with reference to research by the Korea Development Institute, reports Ukrinform.
"This year, Moscow has been a notable supporter of the Kim regime, and the two countries have increased their economic and military cooperation," the publication reminds.
It is noted that North Korea provides ammunition to Russia and sends its troops to the war against Ukraine, for which Moscow pays with money and helps Pyongyang to increase its military potential.
"The deepening of the alliance with Putin gave Kim the opportunity to turn less to Beijing for diplomatic support. But Pyongyang is still heavily dependent on China for its economic needs," the study notes.
According to the publication, the DPRK imports more than 900 types of products from China, and buys approximately 150 items from Russia, including oil and gas. At the same time, investments from the Russian Federation turned out to be unstable compared to Chinese ones, and tourism from Russia is unlikely to increase.
"The current situation is the result of the coincidence of interests between Russia, which needs conventional weapons and troops, and North Korea, which needs food, energy and foreign currency. So if this war ends in any form, as Trump has promised, their mutual needs may change," the publication quotes one of the report's authors, Lee Jong-kyu, a senior researcher at the Korea Development Institute, as saying.
North Korea's military industry could still benefit from cooperation with Russia, he said, but the sector has limited spillovers to the wider economy and may even hinder the growth of other areas.
According to Lee Sang-jun, a professor at Kookmin University who also took part in the study, North Korea wants to support Russia to gain access to modern technology. This is necessary for Pyongyang to develop ballistic missiles, submarines and fighter jets.
If Trump's efforts to end the war drag on, Kim will buy enough time to modernize North Korea's military industry, and his troops will gain combat experience in Ukraine, scientists warn.
Another researcher, Joanna Hosaniak, who has tracked cross-border activity, believes there is now "extremely intense competition" between China and Russia for economic influence over North Korea. According to her, Moscow exerts this influence through military production, while Beijing uses other means.
