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Kamala Harris, to the surprise of many, pulled ahead of Donald Trump in Iowa, winning 47% of support to his 44%. Such an advantage for Democrats in a state that has historically supported Republicans came as a surprise to both political analysts and Trump himself. The poll, conducted by the Des Moines Register in cooperation with Mediacom, surveyed 808 likely Iowa voters from Oct. 28 to Oct. 31 and showed a striking divide.
In particular, among women, Harris leads Trump by as much as 20 percentage points, while among men her gap has been cut in half compared to the previous poll in September. If you compare these results with the data of September, when Trump was ahead of Harris by 4 points, a change in mood among voters becomes obvious. In June, Trump had a significant 18 percentage point lead over Joe Biden, who at the time was seen as the Democratic front-runner.
Iowa, not included in the list of so-called "swing" states, has usually been a reliable bastion for Republicans, supporting Trump by more than 9 points in 2016 and by 8 points in 2020. However, the latest data indicate a shift in sympathies even in such a traditionally conservative state. Neither candidate has actively campaigned in Iowa since the primary, and they don't have headquarters there, making the result even more unexpected.
Trump's team questioned the results of the Des Moines Register poll, calling it "biased." At the same time, the Republican headquarters cited data from another poll conducted by Emerson College from November 1 to 2, according to which Trump maintains a 10 percent lead over Harris.
At the national level, the situation remains even for both candidates, which adds intrigue to the upcoming vote. Although Iowa is not a large state, its winner will receive six Electoral College votes that could play a decisive role. Election Day is set for November 5, and early voting has already begun.
