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President-elect Donald Trump's team is considering the possibility of a "Baltic option" regarding the territories of Ukraine temporarily occupied by Russia. American political scientist Adrian Karatnytskyi told Ukrinform about this.
"I think they want a ceasefire, the end of the active phase of the war. And, obviously, acceptance by both sides of the existing territorial distribution, but without recognizing Russia's annexation of the occupied territories and with the search for other ways of their return," said the expert, who is a senior researcher at the Eurasian Center of the US Atlantic Council.
This is such a Baltic option, he explained, "America will not recognize the occupied territories as part of Russia and will continue sanctions and at the same time postpone Ukrainian membership in NATO, as they say, for 20 years." (The US did not recognize the occupation of the Baltic states by the Soviet Union and Germany, which lasted from 1940 to 1991.)
According to an employee of the Atlantic Council, the Russian conditions for a peaceful settlement will also change.
Russia will continue to pay the price for the occupation of Ukrainian territories. In particular, at the expense of 300 billion dollars of Russian assets in Western banks, which will serve as a resource for Ukraine, including for the restoration of its defense potential and reconstruction.
According to Karatnytskyi, the Trump administration will not accept the conditions of the Russian ruler Vladimir Putin, in particular, on the demilitarization of Ukraine.
He noted: "Trump will not sacrifice his reputation and image as a strong leader who himself can force others to do something concrete, positive."
At the same time, the team of the newly elected president underestimates the factor of the Ukrainian population, the fact that any agreements of the leaders must be acceptable to society, the expert believes.
Speaking about the possible levers of Washington's influence on Putin, Karatnytskyi emphasized Russian assets in Europe, which Trump can force to be directed to the needs of Ukraine, mainly to the purchase of American weapons.
"Trump can say to Russia: either accept the truce, or we will give the Ukrainians resources that will force you to do so," the expert noted.
The newly elected head of the White House can tell the Europeans that they will finance Ukraine's defense spending.
Like, "the sooner you do it (confiscate 300 billion assets, - ed.), the sooner we will hand over weapons to Ukraine," Karatnytskyi noted, noting that the Europeans will have no other choice but to direct these assets to the purchase of equipment from the United States defense for Ukraine.
"But this is only if Russia refuses any reasonable solution to the problem in the eyes of America," he added.
Trump will not go for the "surrender of Ukraine" also because of Europe's position, Karatnytskyi stressed.
"The demand for capitulation would be rebuffed by European countries, because it would mean a great threat that territories can be changed by armed means," he said.
According to the expert, Trump will not want to create a crisis in relations between the United States and Europe, "because America is also looking for alliances to continue playing with China" and to counter threats from non-democratic countries.
According to Karatnytskyi, the traditional wing formed "in the Reagan era" (about 50% of Trump's voters), which "has a very negative attitude toward Putin," retains a large influence within the Republican Party.
"I think he has to keep his coalition and cannot ignore the views of this wing of his party," the expert said.
Commenting on the possibility of appointing former US Ambassador to Germany Richard Grenell to the position of Secretary of State, Karatnytskyi noted that the candidate for this post is one of the authors of the Trump team's plan to end the war published in the Wall Street Journal.
"I think this is a person who will not be in favor of capitulation. He will look for some kind of agreements - that is, we will either force him to recognize (the conditions for stopping the war), or if Russia does not want to recognize them, then we will intensify the military potential of the Ukrainians in order to encourage Russia to compromise."
Karatnytskyi considers the Trump team's proposals to create an 800-mile buffer zone between Ukraine and Russia to host international peacekeeping forces unlikely.
