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The longer Russia's war against Ukraine lasts, the longer the dollar-hryvnia exchange rate will increase. In the event of the end of the war, the exchange rate will stabilize at the current level.
This is reported by RBC-Ukraine with reference to the addendum to the draft budget for 2025 (project No. 12000).
Taking into account the assumptions of authorities and state-owned enterprises, the future financial indicators of eight state-owned enterprises were modeled and net cash flows to the state budget were estimated. The base scenario, negative and positive scenario were modeled on the basis of macroeconomic scenarios developed by the Ministry of Economy.
According to the base scenario of the end of hostilities by the end of 2024, in 2024 and 2025, the exchange rate of the hryvnia decreases against the US dollar, after which it stabilizes.
Under the negative scenario of the end of hostilities by the end of 2025, the exchange rate decreases in the medium term.
Under the positive scenario of the end of hostilities in 2024, in the medium term, the exchange rate remains at the level of 41 hryvnias for 1 dollar.
