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Scientists warn that in the distant future humanity will face extremely dramatic geological transformations — the consequences caused by our activities today, writes Success in UA.
We've already had 109 major earthquakes this year alone, according to the US Geological Survey. The epicenters were all over the world: from the devastating disaster in Morocco, Indonesia, Alaska and Patagonia. Tectonic plates are the constantly moving puzzle pieces on which we spend our lives, even if our senses are not aware of it.
A recent paper published in Science claims that our planet is headed for where it already has been: Pangea Ultima is expected to form in about 250 million years, when the land mass consisting of Europe, Asia and Africa merges with both Americas. But only part of the planet's surface will be suitable for mammals to live in, it is reported tsn.
As mentioned earlier, supercontinents are like puzzle pieces that fit together on the Earth's surface due to the movement of tectonic plates. Think of it as a natural, self-organizing pattern. According to paleogeography, there have been three major supercontinents in the past two billion years: Pangea, Rodinia, and Columbia. But even earlier, about three billion years ago, smaller landmasses moved and connected in a similar way, even if they were not as large as these great supercontinents.
Supercontinents are the result of how the Earth's outer layer, or tectonic plates, move and organize. Both the lithosphere and the mantle control the dynamics of the supercontinent. They both influence and are influenced by the movement of hot material (mantle convection) inside the Earth, creating a kind of influence loop. It's called cycle of supercontinents.
In about 250 million years, Earth is expected to transform into a supercontinent: Pangea Ultima. This will happen when the continents of Europe, Asia, Africa and America merge. Scientists believe that during this time up to 92% of the Earth's surface may become unsuitable for the life of mammals.
Will our species survive and adapt to this dramatic change? It is this question that most worries scientists and humanity in general.
This supercontinent would have only a fraction of its surface — about 8% — habitable for most mammals, compared to the 66% we have today. What would cause such a drastic change? As the continents merge and diverge, volcanic activity increases, releasing vast amounts of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. This, in turn, leads to an increase in temperature, and in parts of the new supercontinent the temperature will reach more than 40 °C. The increase in solar radiation due to the aging of the Sun will worsen the situation. Deserts would stretch across the heart of Pangea Ultima, creating arid landscapes unfit for most mammals except for a few highly specialized species. In addition, the lack of moisture will reduce the removal of CO2 from the atmosphere, exacerbating the climate problem.
In this extreme scenario, a mass extinction is brewing, potentially affecting not only mammals but also plant life and other life forms. This is a terrifying prospect not only for the Earth, but for us as a species.
And yet, amid the bleak outlook, there is hope. This is not the first time that the Earth has undergone transformational shifts. Life has faced extinction events in the past, adapting and enduring. The location of Pangea Ultima (in the warm tropics or at the top of the North Pole) can significantly affect the outcome, offering different conditions for survival.
Perhaps we will begin to evolve to become desert life specialists, change our habits, lead a nocturnal lifestyle or seek shelter in caves.
Mammals appeared more than 310 million years ago, becoming dominant within 55 million years after the Cretaceous-Paleogene extinction, adapting to climatic changes.
However, the combination of natural earth processes and anthropogenic warming becomes a significant threat to their (and our) existence.
There are constraints on mammalian survival, such as sustained high temperatures, increased CO2, solar energy, and changing land configuration. They are likely to push mammals to a climatic tipping point and mass extinction. And we, humans, in turn, push us closer to the abyss, changing the Earth's climate. We see it every day, every hour and every minute.
In 2023 and 2024, the world moves even closer to a 1,5°C rise in average temperatures over pre-industrial levels set by the 2015 Paris Agreement. This limit, considered key to avoiding the worst effects of climate change, is now under threat. In a May report from the World Meteorological Organization, the probability of crossing this threshold between 2023 and 2027 is 66%.
And while breaching the Paris limit requires continued warming over many years, such a surge is alarming. After an unusually hot July, 2023 temperatures did not drop as expected. Factors such as increased ocean heating called El Niño contributed to the unexpected rise in temperatures. Unusually low dust levels from the Sahara and warming in the Atlantic Ocean also played a significant role. The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) agrees that 2023 was unusually warm. Nevertheless, this suggests a lower anomaly of 1,25°C relative to the twentieth century average.
That is, the Earth's temperature is approaching the limit of 1,5 °C established by the Paris Agreement. If this is not the most important reminder of the urgent need to address climate change and work collectively to limit global warming, then what are we waiting for?
Scientists say the predicted supercontinent Pangea Ultima and increased solar energy could dramatically change Earth's climate, affecting the survival of mammals. But we may not have to wait 250 million years to live in such critical conditions: human-induced changes will come much sooner.
How can we help? Scientists emphasize that humanity must develop and continue to use wind and solar energy instead of fossil fuels. We all need to be mindful of our reckless water consumption habits. We should no longer define progress solely by economic growth, GDP, or the amount of profit provided to shareholders. We must free ourselves from compulsive consumerism and rethink growth. We need a whole new way of thinking.
Pangea Ultima is a profound reflection on our role in shaping the future of our world. It prompts people to consider whether we as a species can withstand the future challenges of our collective indecision.
