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What Chinese leaders said about plans for large-scale expansion on the African continent
In the first week of September, Beijing уnext became a city of increased security, the military and the police are at every intersection and underpass, at all bridges and subway stations. This strengthening of security measures accompanied an important event - the summit of the China-Africa Cooperation Forum, where more than 50 leaders of African states, regional African and international organizations, including UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres, visited the capital of China.
The leaders of China called this summit the biggest diplomatic event of the year in China, and they had every reason to do so.
Photo: EPA
NEW OPPORTUNITIES FOR CHINA IN AFRICA
The Chinese leadership has been paying more attention to relations with African countries for a long time. The same Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC, Forum on China-Africa Cooperation) was created back in 2000, during the predecessor of the current African Union (existing since 2002), the Organization of African Unity, founded in 1963 for overcoming colonialism on the continent.
However, the presence of the United States (as well as in any other region of the planet), Europeans and Russia prevented Africa from "turning around" in full China. Now, when, as the official Beijing says, "changes unseen in centuries have accelerated in the world," the moment has come for China to accelerate its progress in Africa.
Indeed, the main competitors of the Celestial Empire for influence on the African continent - the West and Russia - are focused on the war that Ukraine is waging against the Russian invasion. Moscow is focused on its aggressive goals in Ukraine, and the rest of its so-called "traditional regions of influence", in particular, the post-Soviet countries of Central Asia and a large part of Africa, are devoting less and less attention, and even less money.
Western partners are preoccupied with helping Ukraine and debating the dilemma of how to help Kyiv win but at the same time prevent Moscow's defeat, still wary of an inadequate response from its ruler with the keys to nuclear weapons. In addition, in Washington and European capitals, they are looking with growing anxiety at the Middle East, where the conflict between Israel and radicals from Hamas is teetering on the verge of turning into a regional war. So they don't really care about Africa at the moment.
The wave of military coups that took place here in the last few years also contributed to the displacement of the Western presence from the African continent - Mali and Guinea (2021), Burkina Faso (2022), Niger and Gabon (2023). The military juntas that seized power in these countries or took control of the governments of several others without the use of weapons, almost immediately demanded the withdrawal of the military contingents of the United States and European countries from their territory, which they did or are currently doing.
African elites are very happy to cooperate with China, because it supports the narrative of the negative historical memory of coexistence with Western countries during the period of colonialism and publicly tries to make contact as equals, although it looks down on them because of the dependence of local economic partners on Chinese ones. Unlike the West, the People's Republic of China does not impose any political conditions such as reforms, introduction of environmental standards or democratization for economic cooperation.
Beijing does not care what the structure of an African country is, and it never insists on regime change. The main thing is to successfully negotiate with the elites and get the opportunity to do profitable business. So now the conditions are quite favorable for China's expansion in Africa, and Beijing has begun to act more assertively.
Photo: VCG Photo
CHINA-AFRICAN COOPERATION FORUM
FOCAC, as mentioned above, was founded by China and its African partners in 2000 as a platform for the implementation of economic, in particular, transport projects. In this format, it is much easier to coordinate large-scale initiatives involving the participation of several countries. For example, the extraction of minerals in central Africa and their transportation through the territory of other states to seaports on the coast of the Indian Ocean, from where they are sent to China by ship.
One of the first large-scale infrastructure projects implemented in Africa by the Chinese with Chinese money was TAZARA - a railway connecting the Zambian "copper belt", where 6,6% of the world's cobalt reserves, 2,7% of copper and many other metals are concentrated, with the Tanzanian port of Dar es Salaam. Then there were the Addis Ababa, Ethiopia railway, the port of Djibouti, railways and ports in oil-rich Nigeria and Angola, and gold and copper-rich Mauritania in West Africa.
At the same time, China is developing cultural and educational ties with the countries of the continent, primarily through the network of Confucius Institutes, institutions affiliated with the country's government that promote the Chinese language and culture, and since 2011, within the framework of the "Hope" (Hore) project, the Chinese have been building educational institutions for African children.
In recent years, China has become more active in security matters and is increasing not only its arms sales to the African continent, but also the number of joint military exercises with local armies and law enforcement.
For Chinese leaders, African countries are extremely convenient and grateful partners. African governments fully accept the civilizational primacy of China, legitimize its political model, taking it as a model for themselves, and consider the Chinese algorithm for national development and improving the welfare of the population to be more effective than the Western one.
There are 54 countries on the African continent, or a fourth part of the UN, so the loyalty of Africans becomes decisive in the adoption of pro-Chinese or anti-Chinese decisions by the Organization. Beijing expects that influence in Africa will allow it to change the world order, realize its own vision of a multipolar world and adjust the global balance in favor of Asia and Africa.
Of course, not everything is perfect, and there are downsides to such cooperation, primarily the excessive indebtedness of Africans to Chinese partners and "debt traps", which African elites are very reluctant to talk about. Chinese government officials also prefer to avoid the unpleasant topic of debt, but are happy to share the achievements of cooperation.
Thus, according to the Chinese side, during the 24 years of the Forum's existence, the volume of trade between China and Africa increased almost 26 times - from $10,5 billion in 2000 to $282,1 billion in 2023, and Chinese investments in Africa over the same period jumped from less than $500 million to more than $40 billion, that is, 80 times!
According to the International Monetary Fund, over the past 20 years, China has become the largest bilateral trading partner of sub-Saharan Africa, with about 20% of exports going to China and nearly 16% of imports.
In addition, in 2012, the Chinese partners built a new modern headquarters of the African Union at their own expense in the capital of Ethiopia, Addis Ababa, and presented it to this regional organization for the tenth anniversary of its establishment.
But it is worth noting that not all 54 countries of the African continent enjoy the favor of Beijing. In their speeches, Chinese leaders always emphasize that promises of support and investment apply to African countries that have diplomatic relations with China.
Within the framework of FOCAC, China has cooperated with 53 African countries since the 54th. One, Eswatini, a microscopic kingdom of about 1,1 million people in the southeast of the African continent, continues to maintain diplomatic ties with Taiwan and therefore has no diplomatic relations with or cooperation with China.
Photo: Kyodo News/Getty Images
TENS OF BILLIONS FOR THE MODERNIZATION AND SECURITY OF AFRICA
At the Forum, Beijing actually announced the activation of the "charm offensive" in Africa and plans to implement a number of large-scale initiatives and projects in the next three years, before the 10th anniversary FOCAC summit in 2027. The President of the People's Republic of China, Xi Jinping, told about them, who held bilateral meetings with all the dignitaries during the four days, while the high-ranking guests gathered and the summit itself continued. The key result of these talks is an agreement to raise the level of bilateral relations, so that from now on all 53 China-friendly African countries have a strategic or enhanced strategic partnership with China.
This is embodied in the ten main partnership measures that China has proposed for Africa to implement over the next three years for the accelerated modernization of African states and the continent as a whole. These events cover the entire range of bilateral relations from trade, investment and infrastructure to scientific and educational cooperation, cultural exchanges and people-to-people contacts.
Their result should be the construction of new industrial capacities in Africa and the creation of modern agricultural enterprises, which will increase the number of jobs on the continent by more than a million, as well as the further development of networks of railways, highways and ports. Beijing accompanied these plans with calculations according to which the Chinese side will provide Africa with almost 51 billion dollars in three years (the original refers to yuan, but it will be more convenient to operate in American currency).
Of this amount, more than 50 billion dollars. intended for financial support of modernization, of which 29,5 billion dollars will be provided to African governments as loans, for approximately 11,2 billion dollars. it is planned to finance aid "in various forms", without specifying which ones, and at least 9,8 billion dollars. Beijing promises to attract Chinese companies in the form of investments. In addition, the Chinese authorities will encourage and support African countries in issuing panda bonds - special debt instruments denominated in the Chinese currency, yuan.
In three years, China plans to carry out 30 (the number "30" indicates, obviously, 10 each year) large infrastructure projects in Africa under the auspices of its global initiative "One Belt, One Road" (BRO) and significantly expand the logistics network with railways and high-speed highways to connect countries in the depths of the continent with seaports. In Beijing, it is expected that convenient logistics will encourage local entrepreneurship and economic integration, in particular, it will accelerate the creation of the African Continental Free Trade Area.
As a pioneer in the implementation of green technologies, China intends to actively share them with Africa, where 2027 clean energy generation projects (solar, wind, thermal generation) should be implemented by the next FOCAC summit in 30. Another 30 pertains to space programs, the establishment of thirty joint laboratories in the field of satellite remote sensing of the Earth and the introduction of a meteorological system for early warning and prevention of disasters, as well as exploration of the Moon and deep space.
Particular attention is paid to the agricultural sector, more precisely to the development of modern agriculture in Africa, as well as to the provision of food to the inhabitants of the region. Due to climate change, some countries in Africa are suffering from abnormal heat this year, which has destroyed crops and threatens famine. In Namibia in southern Africa, the government ordered the shooting of more than 700 wild animals, including elephants, antelopes, zebras and hippos, and the meat distributed to people.
To support its partners, China will provide $140 million to Africa. emergency aid to provide the population with food and on an area of about 6,7 thousand hectares will build standardized agricultural demonstration areas in the countries of the region, which will be scaled in the future in all countries. For this, Beijing will send 500 Chinese agricultural experts to Africa and create a separate association that will take care of the introduction of innovations in local agricultural production.
For African countries with the least developed economies (according to the UN classification), of which there are as many as 33, or more than half, China has prepared a gift in the form of the unilateral cancellation of import duties on products imported from them. It is believed that such a step will not be felt by Chinese manufacturers, but it can become an additional element in helping the efforts of the governments of the poorest countries to improve the living standards of their populations.
In three years, China also promises to build a modern African Center for Disease Control and Prevention, help with the construction of hospitals in certain countries, launch 20 malaria treatment programs and send at least 2000 of its qualified doctors to provide medical assistance and exchange experience with African colleagues.
In education, emphasis will be placed on increasing the training of specialists in professional and technical specialties, for which the Chinese side, among other things, will provide government scholarships for studying in universities of the People's Republic of China for about 60 African students.
The last, tenth point caused increased interest. In it, Beijing, perhaps for the first time, declared its readiness to actively participate in the restoration of security in Africa. Today, in many countries of the African continent, all kinds of insurgents, terrorists, Islamists and other de facto criminal groups who terrorize the local population and periodically attack Chinese enterprises and Chinese workers, culminating in kidnappings and even murders, feel quite free and safe.
To put an end to such violence, Beijing promises to provide 140 million dollars. military aid grants and train 6000 military personnel and 1000 police and law enforcement officers from Africa, and invite 500 African officers to China for training. Within the framework of military cooperation, the two sides intend to conduct joint exercises, patrols and carry out demining of dangerous regions in Africa, where the problem of landmines is acute.
UKRAINIAN INTEREST
Beijing has announced extremely ambitious plans, the implementation of which can significantly change the situation on the African continent. At first glance, for the warring Ukraine, what is happening in distant Africa is something very separate and of no particular importance for the approaching victory over the aggressor.
However, it is worth pointing out two aspects that will become favorable for us in the event of the success of the Chinese plans - the reduction of the influence of the aggressor country on the international arena and the strengthening of its isolation and the stabilization of the security situation on the African continent. These two consequences of the expansion of China's presence in Africa will be evidence that Moscow has suffered another strategic defeat where it considered its position unshakable.
Russia, no matter how much we like it, is still a large country with significant influence in many regions of the world. Of course, this is not the merit of the current regime, but the usual theft for the Kremlin, this time of the legacy of the Soviet period, which the "brilliant" leadership of the Russian Federation, led by Putin, is persistently getting rid of.
First there was Central Asia (CA), where China saw a vacuum after Russia's invasion of Ukraine and launched its own rapprochement mechanisms, and also moved from purely economic projects to greater participation in the security sector, displacing the Russian Federation from it. These processes in Central Asia are already irreversible, because the Chinese dragon is not used to releasing the prey it has caught. So Moscow is gradually withdrawing from the Central Asian countries beyond its borders and at the same time smiling amiably, because Beijing firmly holds its survival in its hands, and quarreling with it is deadly dangerous for the Kremlin's powerful.
It is the same in Africa, the trends are irreversible - China with its money, weapons and influence has no competitors there. From now on, the arrival of Chinese capital in every African country will be accompanied by the strengthening of the security component - it will be the paramilitary protection of some company from the PRC, or the local army and law enforcement officers. Whether the Chinese and the Africans will be able to curb all the radical rebels is questionable, perhaps they will be able to significantly limit their activity, but they will certainly be able to oust the Russian bandits from various PMCs, which will mean "rasha goodbye" from Africa.
Modern Russia supplies African countries only with the means of destruction - weapons and fighters, complete with the risks of Western sanctions. Instead, China offers modernization and development, backing up its words with sufficient amounts of investment and aid, and the same weapons, more advanced than Russia's.
The loss of Russian influence in Africa is not important for the average Russian, but it will definitely be a blow to the ego of Putin, who continues to believe in the myth of Russia as a great power. Expulsion from the African continent will increase Moscow's international isolation and deal a blow to its attempts to be on a par with the US and China in international affairs.
A second important factor in increasing China's presence in Africa will be a reduction in the level of armed confrontation between the governments of countries in the region and various rebel/radical groups, which are often at odds with each other. Reducing the number of "hot spots" on our planet is a direct blow to the foundations of the Russian regime, which professes hatred and intolerance to everything both outside the Federation and inside it, because of a richer life than Russians, racial or national affiliation, religion, etc.
In the politics of the Kremlin during the times of the Russian Empire, the Soviet Union, and the Russian Federation, the pathological desire for war and throwing huge resources into the production of weapons of murder and destruction remains unchanged. Russian imperialism, cultivated by Moscow, is unable to offer either its population or the world a non-military paradigm of peaceful development, and thus it is strikingly different from the civilized world, including the Chinese vision of the future.
The most desirable for the Russian regime is a world with wars on all continents, and for China - a peaceful and stable coexistence of countries that will allow it to promote its influence with "soft power". This is a key difference in the vision of the future between the two countries with a "boundless strategic partnership", so that when the Middle East succeeds in coercing restive African states into peace, the world will become safer and Moscow will lose one of the important elements fueling its aggressive expansionism.
Photo: Ken Ishii/Getty Images
The processes launched at the 11th FOCAC summit in Beijing have been approved by the leaders of African countries, and Moscow will not be able to stop them. As Xi Jinping said at the meeting with the head of the African Union Commission, Moussa Faki Mahamat, China considers Africa to be an important pole in the modern multipolar world, and the development of relations with the countries of this region is one of the most important priorities of its diplomacy.
The Chinese dragon has seriously taken up Africa, which means that another region of the world with a strong influence of Moscow is awaiting de-Russification. Every diplomatic defeat of the Kremlin regime, no matter where it happens in the world, adds faith to Ukrainians and confidence to partners that increasing military aid to Ukraine will not mean an escalation in the war, but the inevitable defeat of the aggressor country on the battlefield.
Volodymyr Sydorenko, Beijing
First photo: CFP
