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If Donald Trump wins the November elections in the USA, there will be major changes in American politics. The Republican platform, a 16-page document that outlines how Trump might lead the country, calls for a massive program to deport illegal immigrants and tighten immigration controls.
According to The Economist, trading partners should expect higher tariffs and restrictions: the former president has already outlined plans to impose tariffs on all imports. Military aid is likely to become more conditional; allies will be forced to increase their own defense spending.
To help understand the global implications, the Economist Intelligence Unit ranked America's 70 largest trading partners. The ranking, which the EIU calls the "Trump Risk Index," is based on countries' exposure to U.S. trade, security and migration policies.
Mexico, America's largest trading partner, tops the list with a score of 71 out of 100. Tightening immigration rules could affect millions of Mexicans entering America both legally and illegally.
Five more Latin American countries made it to the top ten: Costa Rica and Panama occupy 2nd and 5th places due to low spending on armaments and defense, as well as due to dependence on American military aid. The Dominican Republic, El Salvador, and Honduras rank high on the index because of their vulnerability to increased migration policies, with remittances from the Americas accounting for between 8 and 23 percent of their GDP.
Germany ranks 3rd, which is the highest figure among NATO allies. During his first term, Trump wanted to withdraw more than 12 US troops from Germany and criticized the country's low defense spending. In his second term, Trump may threaten to cut military aid to Ukraine to force allies to increase spending.
China, against which Trump waged a trade war during his first term, ranks 1st among all Asian countries and 6th overall. Trump has made it clear that he wants a more assertive recovery from China. He threatened to impose a 60% tariff on Chinese goods.
Countries that are less dependent on America occupy the lowest positions. Saudi Arabia scored less than 10 out of 100 because it is increasingly dependent on American trade (except for arms purchases). Australia also ranks low in the index because it has established stronger trade ties with countries in the Asia-Pacific region. Russia, which is already cut off from most forms of trade with the West, ranks 63rd.
