In the Russian Federation, the collapse of the oil and gas economy is predicted

Obtaining revenue from the export of fuel, mainly oil, oil products and gas, was one of the main factors in the recovery of the Russian economy.

After losing access to Western technologies and key sales markets, Russia will no longer be able to return to the former volume of hydrocarbon exports, either in physical or monetary terms. Such a forecast was made by experts of the Institute of Energy Research of the Russian Academy of Sciences (IED RAS), reports The Moscow Times.

According to their estimate, in the next 25 years, the economy will lose 40% of fuel exports, and revenues from it will decrease by 2,8 times.

Foreign exchange earnings from the export of hydrocarbons, for which technology and consumer goods were imported for decades, will drop from $315 billion in pre-war 2021 to $146 billion by 2030. And in 2050, it will be only $114 billion.

According to the forecast of the Russian Academy of Sciences, by the middle of the 167st century, the export of oil and oil products will be a quarter lower than the pre-war level (217 million tons per year against 3,4 million), and revenues from it will fall 238,2 times — from $70,8 billion to $1985 billion. Gas exports, which fell to 193 levels after Gazprom lost the European market, will recover to 259 billion cubic meters per year, but will remain a quarter lower than the pre-war level (43 billion cubic meters). At the same time, gas revenues of the economy will decrease by 76,3% — from $43,3 billion to $XNUMX billion per year.

According to the forecast of the Russian Academy of Sciences, coal exports will collapse more than 10 times in 25 years — from 208 to 20 million tons per year.

Obtaining revenue from the export of fuel, mainly oil, oil products and gas, was one of the main factors in the recovery of the Russian economy, the experts of IEI RAS emphasize. They recalled that the rise in oil and gas prices gave rise to the "economic miracle" of Vladimir Putin's first presidential terms.

At the end of the 2010s, the export of hydrocarbons abroad provided up to a third of Russian GDP. But in the coming decades, the PEC "will lose its former role as the "locomotive" of the Russian economy," and its contribution to GDP will decrease fivefold, the article says.

Experts note that the already sluggish development of the country's economy is exacerbated by unprecedented sanctions, calling into question the possibility of fulfilling these functions.