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Russia has begun supplying radars and air defense equipment to the Islamic Republic of Iran amid Tehran's tense standoff with Israel.
As Forbes writes, this step could potentially lead to the appearance of additional vulnerabilities and weak points in advanced Russian systems, especially since Israel has already demonstrated its ability to strike Russian air defense systems in Iran.
It is noted that Iran is interested in acquiring the S-400 "Triumph" long-range strategic anti-aircraft missile system. In 2016, Tehran purchased modern S-300 PMU-2 systems from Moscow, and also operates Russian short- and medium-range Buk and Tor systems.
Iran is also pushing for Russia to deliver Su-35 Flanker fighter jets ordered by Tehran in 2021, according to two senior Iranian sources. Iran expects to receive at least two dozen fighters. Previous reports of their speedy delivery turned out to be premature or outright false.
“Any future or continued deliveries of advanced Russian military equipment to Iran may now prove risky for Moscow. Iran vowed to attack Israel after Hamas political leader Ismail Haniya was killed in Tehran on July 31. Any Iranian attack will most likely trigger corresponding Israeli actions and, possibly, the impression of advanced Iranian military equipment, including Russian-made systems," the article said.
It is noted that such a scenario is not just hypothetical. When Iran unleashed an unprecedented barrage of drones and missiles on Israel in April, Israel responded by destroying an Iranian S-300PMU-2 anti-aircraft missile radar in central Isfahan.
Israel had been preparing to strike the S-300 for more than a decade before the Isfahan strike. In 2013, his air force conducted exercises against Greek S-300 PMU-1s based on the island of Crete, gaining valuable information about their capabilities and potential vulnerabilities that they could one day use against a Syrian or Iranian system.
That same year, Israel opposed Russia's delivery of S-300s to Damascus, even hinting that it would preemptively destroy any Syrian S-300s before they were operational.
In 2018, Russia did deliver the S-300 to Syria under different circumstances, but, very importantly, never handed it over to the Syrian military in full. Essentially, this meant that Syria was not allowed to use the strategic system, which remained under the command and control of the Russian military, in the face of hundreds of Israeli airstrikes in the country. The “Syrian” S-300 operated once in 2022 and was unceremoniously removed from the country soon after, making it clear that Syria never owned or controlled it.
"The supply of modern weapons to Iran in the midst of a confrontation with Israel can lead to equally negative results for Russia in the event of a significant escalation. Putin likely does not want that outcome, at least in part because it could prevent the supply of Iranian drones and other equipment to his military. He called on Tehran to avoid attacking the Israeli civilian population, no doubt realizing that this would increase the likelihood of escalation or even all-out war," the analysts noted.
Although it remains unclear what exactly Russia is supplying now. It is unlikely that this will allow Iran to significantly strengthen its defense in a short period of time - for example, S-400 or a squadron of Su-35. However, even if Russia supplies advanced components for future or existing Iranian systems, Israel may still decide to destroy them while they are still in storage. Such a move could both prevent Iran from modernizing its armed forces and demonstrate that Israel is firmly opposed to Moscow supplying Tehran with advanced weapons.
"All these factors indicate that Russia is once again risking the reputation of its domestic arms industry, which has already suffered from Ukraine. In this case, its willingness to do so may underline how dependent it has become on Iranian goodwill over the past two and a half years," the journalists added.
Russia gives weapons to Iran - what is known
Iranian officials have requested military equipment, and Russia has already begun supplying it, The New York Times reported. The newspaper cited two anonymous Iranian officials, one of whom is a member of the powerful paramilitary Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. The message does not specify what equipment Russia is supplying.
Russian officials continue coordination and military cooperation with Iran. As analysts of the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) note, one of the reasons is concern about Russian interests in the region, but it is not only that.
